The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the 2010 Blue Book of Economics yesterday. The Blue Book predicts that if the external situation improves and the domestic support continues, China’s import and export trade will increase by 10% next year, and export trade will increase by 15%. Close to the 2008 level.
The Blue Book also predicts that China's GDP growth rate will reach 8.3% this year. If the world financial crisis does not deteriorate further severely next year, there will be no serious natural disasters and other major problems in the country, and the GDP growth rate will steadily rise to around 9%.
Although China’s foreign trade has declined for 10 consecutive months from November last year to August this year, at the same time, the prices of international petroleum and mineral resources products are also in a lower position, and the above two commodities are all external to China. A product with high dependence. Yan Changhong, director of the Institute of Finance and Trade of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that from the perspective of long-term construction, if the mechanism for converting foreign exchange and physical reserves can be initiated, the massive import of these resource products will not only benefit China’s economic construction in the future, but also benefit the current The international market creates more demand and forms a stimulus to the recovery of the world economy. This is also a weapon for China to resist trade protectionism.
Statistics show that with the continuous increase in oil imports in recent years, China's dependence on foreign oil imports has increased from 1.9% in 1994 to 45% in 2006. It is expected that China's oil import dependence will gradually increase in the next 20 to 30 years. It is 50% to 60%.
As for the trend of the real estate market, which is generally concerned about the outside world, the "Blue Book of Economy" admits that real estate and its fiscal system will not be reformed. "China's real estate has reached a crossroads next year. What will happen to real estate next year and after, mainly depends on the outcome of the interests of all parties."
Liang Shuang, an associate researcher at the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, believes that it depends mainly on the determination and size of the joint reform of the state and government departments.
To this end, Zhou Tianyong, a professor at the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, suggested in the "Blue Book of Economics" that the relevant departments should reform the bidding and auction system on the one hand, and form a competitive land supply market, that is, narrow the scope of expropriation of non-public land, as long as the collective land meets the construction plan. Without the government's requisition, you can directly enter the construction market, change the form of bidding and auction, and concentrate on the listing supply in time. In exchange for the land transfer party to register information on the exchange for a long time, and recurring transactions at any time and any place. On the other hand, it is necessary to further adopt the method of “bottoming the bottom of the wagesâ€, that is, to expand the government guarantee part, not only to extract the housing problem of urban low-income people from the market, but also to draw the housing problem of urban middle-income people from the market. Come out and be included in the scope of government protection. However, the housing security for the middle-income people in the city is "guarantee". Everyone has the right to reside and can rent a house instead of "guaranteeing" everyone has property rights; and under the government's guarantee, market-oriented operations are carried out. Renting housing has high, medium and low grades and can be chosen on its own.
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